I read a few days ago that the Lotto organisers were wanting to find the owner of a ticket worth £76 million that had not yet been claimed. The numbers on the ticket are obviously vital but so is the need to check them!
As I write, numbers are very much in the news, and many commentators are certainly doing their best to check them out. Right now the number 48 is all important as this number of letters could trigger a vote for a new Prime Minister, however it seems that those who thought this number would be achieved are finding that there may well not be that many after all.Of vital importance to the Prime Minister is whether she'll have the numbers to get her Brexit Bill through Parliament. The number of votes for and against could have huge ramifications for our nation either way.
When we estimate numbers we nearly always tend to overestimate them in our favour. Consider a protest march in London; the organisers will invariably give a number involved which is considerably higher than the number given by the police. Both numbers have to be estimates and therefore it's possible that the police are the more inaccurate, but against that they probably have a lot more experience in estimating such numbers.
I sometimes wonder about this when I read an account by Wesley or Whitefield that on a certain date they preached to 10,000 or 20,000 people. These are obviously round numbers, as we say, the question is how'round' are they? Did someone try and count, could it be possible that these outstanding preachers may have estimated things somewhat in their favour or do we hold them in such regard that we consider that their estimates might have been infallible? Mind you if the numbers were really nearer 7,000 and 14,000 then who am I not still to be amazed? There's a reason for my numbers revision which I'll go on to explain.
When it comes to church life then numbers are very important to us. Church leaders are usually desperate to know how many are attending another Leader's church and will use different approaches to gain the information. Sometimes the question can be blunt and direct - how many do you get on a Sunday? Other times the approach is more subtle - have you been growing over the last few years, or - are you encouraged by the numbers you get on a Sunday?
I realise that in many churches today there is an actual count made which does of course furnish us with an accurate figure. Though even here with repeat meetings you can have repeat attenders which can lead to repeat accounting! My informal and general research is that if you are ever given an estimated number then you can reckon to reduce it by a third for accuracy. I'm fascinated by the fact that in Acts 19 when Paul first visits Ephesus and baptises a group of Believers that Dr Luke tells us in verse 7, 'There were ABOUT twelve men in all.' (Emphasis mine). Come on, it's not that difficult to count whether there were actually 9,10,11 or 12!
So here I want to admit my aversion to setting targets for growth in church numbers. I once preached in a small village in Cornwall where the church leader said their vision was for a church of 5000 people. I know that there are those who will tell me that God can do anything (and of course I believe that) but I still think that kind of target setting is unrealistic and in the end can breed cynicism and disappointment in the congregation. Very frequently I've heard it said that in the New Testament they were clearly interested in numbers. I absolutely agree and the book of Acts confirms that with several references to numbers beginning with the 3000 who were baptised on the Day of Pentecost followed by other accounts of numerical growth. But my point is this, that in the early church they didn't set targets but they counted the numbers God had given them and rejoiced in that.
In general we would expect healthy churches to grow and I can't imagine any leader worthy of the name not wanting his church to grow. But the issue is not that we reach a certain target figure but that we continue to see growth in numbers so that there might be more worshippers of Jesus. 'And the Lord added to their number daily those who were being saved.'(Acts 2:42). That would be something that a church of any size should long to see.